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What is a Value Bet ?

A valuebet is a bet whose odds have a probability value higher then the real probability of it happening. Therefore, continuous stakes with this type of bet have a safe profit in the long term since their value is higher than their probability.

Let's imagine a bet where the probability for each outcome is 50%. For example, betting for a basketball match to end up with more than 175.5 points. There are only two possible outcomes, so let's imagine there is a 50% chance of each. The odds would be:

• More than 175.5:
2,00 $
• Less than 175.5:
2,00 $

Obviously, bookmakers leave a margin for their profit so the real odds would be:

• More than 175.5:
1,90 $
• Less than 175.5:
1,90 $

In fact, that's where bookmakers get their profits. Bets paid below their probability.

In the former example, if we find a Bookie who offers one of the two possible outcomes for more than 2.00$, then we have a valuebet. A bet worth more than its probability. So if we always look for this, the probability to win always in the long term will be very high, if not absolute.

Odds in line with their probability have a value of 1.00, so we can define a valuebet as those whose associated value is greater then 1.00. The higher the value, the better paid the bet will be. Again, seeing the former example, both bets have a value of 1.00 since they both pay their probability (50%).

We can find this value with the following formula: odds * probability / 100.


How do you find the probability of a bet ?

Until now we have explained what a valuebet is. But how do you calculate the probability of a bet? Sport is not mathematical. How can we know the probability of one team beating another? Or how can we know if so many points are going to be scored?

In fact, it should be the bookmakers who should be answering these questions since it is up to them to calibrate the odds. They have teams of experts who find these probabilities and define the odds for each event.

We make a much simpler calculation. In the same way that from the probability of a bet you can calculate the odds, from those values we can recalculate the probability. In that way, we can establish the average probability of the bets offered by the different bookmakers. Or in other words, we can find the probability by calculating the average of all the experts from the different bookmakers.

Obviously, if for one specific bet we only have values from one bookmaker, we don't have enough data to reach a satisfactory result. All the valuebets offered by ARBEDIA have been worked out using data from at least six different bookmakers. Without minimum information we do not do any calculations. We don't offer the odds from every single bookmaker, but their information is used to complete these valuable operations.


Example of a Value Bet

Let's see a simple example of a valuebet. We'll carry on with the former example:

                               Bookie1       Bookie2       Bookie3       Bookie4       Bookie5       Bookie6

• More than 175.5:
1,90 $          1,95 $         2,00 $          2,20 $         1,85 $          1,95 $         47,94 %
• Less than 175.5:
1,90 $          1,85 $         1,80 $          1,70 $         1,85 $          1,80 $         52,06 %

Remember that the lower the odds, the higher the probability of winning. For the information shown above, the probability of more than 175.5 points being scored is 47.94% whereas the probability of more being scored is 52.06%.

Bookie4 offers odds in favour of more than 175.5 points being scored of 2.20$. Let's see if its value is higher than its probability:

Value = 2,20 * 47,94 / 100 = 1,05468

Yes, it's a valuebet. It is a good chance to bet. In terms of probability, if the stakes we put forth have a value of 1.05, we'll get 105$ for every 100$ we bet.