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Types of Value Bet

There aren't different types of valuebets. A bet either is, or isn't. However, we have divided them into two groups: improbable valuebets, and probable valuebets.

Improbable Value Bet

Most valuebets are in this group. It's a good kind of bet and highly recommended. But it is also improbable that it will be won.

However, keep in mind that a valuebets player doesn't look to get a profit in one single stake since he will lose many bets. He looks to find long term profits since only by winning one bet he will make up for all the rest.

These bets hold the highest odds since by being so improbable, many bookmakers pay for the way above their real value. Many players don't go for this because they simply like the idea of losing again and again.

In fact, the probability of a valuebet can be completely subjective, and this is where the player's skill comes in. An expert in a sport can in fact see whether a bet is as improbable as the odds say it is.

Let's see a clear example.


Imaginary example of an improbable Value Bet: Team1 vs Team2 (soccer betting)

Imagine Team2 plays two divisions below Team1, and the match is being played at Team1's venue. Obviously, Team1 is favourite to win the match.

               Bookie1       Bookie2       Bookie3       Bookie4       Bookie5       Bookie6

1
01,05 $       01,05 $        01,03 $        01,04 $        01,06 $       01,02 $           89,07 %
X
10,00 $       11,00 $        11,00 $        10,00 $        09,00 $       11,00 $             9,03 %
2
50,00 $       45,00 $        40,00 $        50,00 $        40,00 $       90,00 $             1,91 %

Bookie6 offers 90,00 $ if Team2 wins.

Value = 90,00 * 1.91 / 100 = 1.719

This is a great Value Bet. Its value is 1.719, which is very high. But the probability of winning is merely 1.91%, which makes winning very difficult. If we play at this kind of bets, we would gain 171.0$ for every 100$ we bet, but we would only win approximately 2% of the bets we place.

Probable Value Bet

From our point of view, these are the best Value Bets. They are good, and obviously very rare. We are talking about those whose probability of success is reasonably high.

In general, these Value Bets don't have as high a value as the improbable ones since bookmakers don't inflate the odds due to their having more chances of happening.

The probability of a Value Bet becoming a winner is, again, completely subjective. The player's knowledge and skill can help to find the best value bets.

For ARBEDIA, a clear probable Value Bet are those whose weaker team plays at home. In fact, we tag all the matches in which the weaker team plays at home as probable. No matter how strong the opponent is, playing in front of your fans is always a plus in motivation.


Imaginary example of a probable Value Bet: Team1 vs Team22 (soccer betting)

Imagine Team2 plays one division below Team1. Team2 plays at home and bets have Team1 as favourite to win.

               Bookie1       Bookie2       Bookie3       Bookie4       Bookie5       Bookie6

1
4,50 $          5,00 $          5,50 $         7,00 $          5,50 $         4,05 $            17,75 %
X
4,00 $          3,50 $          3,00 $         4,00 $          4,00 $         4,50 $            23,82 %
2
1,70 $          1,50 $          1,50 $         1,40 $          1,50 $         1,70 $            58,43 %

Bookie4 offers 7,00 $ if Equipo2 wins.

Value = 7.00 * 17.75 / 100 = 1.2425

This Value Bet has a value of 1.24. In fact, Team2 only has a 17.75% chance of winning, but since they play at home we take it to be a probable Value Bet. This is a good bet.

However, there is a second value bet in the example. Bookie6's draw.

Value = 4,50 * 23,82 / 100 = 1,0719

In this match, if we bet that Team2 draws or wins, we have two value bets and have a great chance of winning.